GTA Housing Market Trends: A Look at Recent Data

Greater Toronto Area Market Activity in September 2026

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) real estate market showed signs of a slowdown in September 2026, with homebuyers appearing to take a cautious approach. According to a report from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, there were 5,040 home sales reported through the TRREB MLS® System during the month (Source: TRREB: Market Watch). This figure represents a nine per cent decrease when compared to the sales figures from September 2025 (Source: TRREB: Market Watch).

The supply side of the market also saw a reduction in activity. The number of new listings entered into the MLS® System in September 2026 was 16,500, which is a decline of 14.4 per cent on a year-over-year basis (Source: TRREB: Market Watch). When looking at the data on a seasonally adjusted basis, both home sales and new listings were down in September 2026 compared to the previous month of August 2026, indicating a short-term cooling trend (Source: TRREB: Market Watch).

Pricing Trends in the GTA

In line with the decrease in sales activity, housing prices in the GTA also experienced a year-over-year decline. The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite benchmark, a tool used to measure price changes in the market, was down by 4.7 per cent in September 2026 compared to the same month in the previous year (Source: TRREB: Market Watch).

The average selling price for a home in the GTA also reflected this trend. In September 2026, the average selling price was recorded at $1,006,409 (Source: TRREB: Market Watch). This represents a decrease of 5.1 per cent from September 2025 (Source: TRREB: Market Watch). Similar to sales and listings, both the MLS® HPI Composite and the average selling price showed a slight dip on a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis when compared to August 2026 (Source: TRREB: Market Watch).

Expert Commentary on Current Market Conditions

Leaders from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board provided context for these figures, highlighting the factors influencing the market. TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld noted the prevailing mood among potential buyers, stating, “Homebuyers were in a holding pattern in September, as uncertainty surrounding the economy, inflation and borrowing costs weighed on Greater Toronto Area (GTA) home sales” (Source: TRREB: Market Watch). He also pointed to the significance of local governance in shaping the market's future: “Housing is one of the biggest issues on voters’ minds, and the upcoming municipal election will help shape housing policy across the GTA and Simcoe County for the next four years. The decisions our next mayors and councillors make on affordability, housing supply and the costs associated with buying a home can also influence buyer demand and confidence in the market” (Source: TRREB: Market Watch).

Jason Mercer, TRREB's Chief Information Officer, spoke about the underlying demand that exists despite the current slowdown. “We know there is substantial pent-up demand in the GTA, with many households fully intending on purchasing a home in the months ahead,” he said (Source: TRREB: Market Watch). Mercer explained that these potential buyers are looking for stability before making a move. “These would-be homebuyers want to take advantage of today’s more affordable housing market, but they need to be confident that their employment situation will remain solid and inflation will not put pressure on borrowing costs over the long term” (Source: TRREB: Market Watch).

TRREB CEO John DiMichele focused on the role of government policy in housing attainability. He urged governments to reduce barriers for homebuyers, specifically mentioning “Toronto’s Municipal Land Transfer Tax and opposing its expansion across the GTA and Simcoe County” (Source: TRREB: Market Watch). DiMichele also emphasized the broader economic importance of a healthy housing sector, stating, “With trade uncertainty and tariffs continuing to affect Canada’s economy, maintaining a strong housing sector is critical to supporting consumer confidence, economic growth, and the significant spin-off spending generated by every MLS® transaction” (Source: TRREB: Market Watch).

The National Housing Supply Context

While the TRREB data provides a snapshot of the GTA, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) offers a broader perspective on the country's housing situation. A key issue highlighted by the CMHC is the persistent housing supply gap. According to the Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report, Canada still needs an estimated 187,000 to 238,000 new homes each year just to close this gap (Source: CMHC: Housing market information). The report notes that current construction levels are falling short of meeting demand, which has long-term implications for Canada's housing future (Source: CMHC: Housing market information).

The CMHC provides a wealth of information through various publications that can help consumers and professionals understand different facets of the housing market. These resources include:

• 2026 Residential Mortgage Industry Report: This report explores the latest trends in housing finance, including borrower preferences and market risks (Source: CMHC: Housing market information).
• Housing Market Outlook 2026: This publication examines key trends in new construction, resales, and rentals, and analyzes how affordability and economic shifts are expected to shape the market (Source: CMHC: Housing market information).
• 2025 Rental Market Report: For those interested in the rental side of the market, this report offers detailed insights into rental conditions in major Canadian cities (Source: CMHC: Housing market information).
• 2025 CMHC Mortgage Consumer Survey: This survey delves into the economic forces that influence the Canadian mortgage market, covering topics like savings, renewals, and the use of digital tools (Source: CMHC: Housing market information).

These reports collectively paint a picture of a complex market influenced by supply constraints, financing conditions, and economic uncertainty at both the regional and national levels. The data from September 2026 indicates a period of adjustment for the GTA housing market, characterized by lower sales and prices compared to the previous year. Commentary from industry experts suggests that economic uncertainty and borrowing costs are key factors causing potential buyers to pause. At the same time, national data underscores an ongoing housing supply challenge that continues to be a major factor in the broader Canadian real estate landscape.

Sources

• TRREB: Market Watch
• CMHC: Housing market information

General information only, not legal, tax or financial advice. Figures are taken from the official sources above as of October 26, 2026.

Farshad Fazaeli, Salesperson · International Realty Firm, Inc., Brokerage · 647-667-5555